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SOUTH CHINA SEA: RISING TENSIONS AND GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRIES
On April 21st, 2025, the annual military exercise BALIKATAN 2025 has started, involving forces from the Philippines and the United States. Additionally, Australia will participate in the exercise with 260 soldiers, while 19 countries, including France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom will send observers. A total of 14,000 soldiers (5,000 Filipino and 9,000 American troops) will participate in the training activity, conducted in the context of the Mutual Defense Agreement of 1951, which provides for U.S. assistance to the Philippines in the event of an attack. The exercise scenario includes organizing and conducting defense in the Philippine archipelago and repelling an attack on one of the country’s islands. Specifically, the exercise involves launching a counteroffensive to retake an island captured by the enemy, sinking enemy vessels using artillery and missile fires, conducting joint naval missions in the South China Sea, and aerial reconnaissance missions over the Philippine archipelago. Among other things, the U.S. will engage the medium-range missile system (with a range of 500 to 2,000 km) called TYPHON, a unit of which was deployed about a year ago in the Luzon area of the Philippines. Naturally, the conduct of the exercise and the testing of advanced missile systems have provoked a reaction from China, which expressed its opposition to such military actions in the disputed area of the South China Sea, particularly with the involvement of U.S. forces. Indeed, on April 24th, 2025, a Chinese naval force consisting of an aircraft carrier and escort ships (frigates, cruisers, support vessels) sailed into the area.
The South China Sea is a region of heightened tension with a real risk of escalation and armed conflict. The overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the countries in the region (Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Indonesia, China, Vietnam) and China’s “Nine-Dash Line” policy, which claims almost the entire marine area, while excluding other countries from their rights under international maritime law, significantly raises tensions, posing the danger of military conflict, either due to accident or deliberate provocations. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of powerful global forces such as the U.S., which have critical strategic interests in the region. The South China Sea is rich in fisheries (12% of the world’s fish catch comes from here) and mineral resources (it is estimated that about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic meters of natural gas lie beneath its surface). Additionally, it is a critical route for global shipping and the transportation of goods, with an annual value of approximately $3 trillion. In this light, military activities reflect broader geopolitical dynamics, turning the area into a strategic battlefield. The involvement of local, regional, and global actors elevates the region to a field of regional and global rivalries that influence the distribution of power, as all seek to secure their interests.
April 26th, 2025
Ioannis Karampelas
President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy
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September 27th, 2025
National Day of: Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan celebrates its National Day or Independence Day on September 27th every year, marking the declaration of independence of October 27th, 1991! After disollution of the USSR, the Turkmen SSR became one of the last republics in the former Soviet Union to proclaim state sovereignty. In 2018, the government of Turkmenistan voted to move the date exactly a month back to September 27th. Turkmenistan is the southernmost state in Central Asia and the second largest. Throughout its history, the region has been conquered by such notable figures as Cyrus the Great, Alexander the Great and Ghengis Khan. The Turkmen people first arrived in the area in about the 10th century, though there is some debate as to where they came from. As trade boomed in the region, it lead to a struggle for domination from different countries, such as Britain, Persia, and Russia, with the last one winning in a series of battles between 1865 and 1885. Turkmenistan fell under Russian domination, later becoming U.S.S.R.’s territory in 1925. Following the events of the failed coup against Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbache, the Supreme Soviet of the Turkmenistan decided to adopt the law "About Independence and Bases of a State System of Turkmenistan," effectively declaring its independence on October 27th, 1991.
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