​Following the coup of July 26th, 2023, Niger has been placed in the epicenter of global geopolitical interest challenging not only the fragile security system in Africa, but also the regional influence of world powers. Amid the Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) threat for military intervention, in Niger it is tested the influence capacity and credibility of regional organizations such as the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS, and international actors such as France, the US, Germany and the EU.

Niger’s coup is the last episode in a series of established military juntas in the Sahel region; preceded by the military coups in Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Sudan, configurating actually a "Sahel junta zone." This zone has an additional qualitative characteristic; it is a region where Russia and Wagner appears with intense activity, formal or informal. In short, Russia has strengthened its presence and influence in Sahel zone posing a direct threat in the western security system in Africa and the vital western interests (especially of France).

Currently, Chad –governed also by a military regime – which remains loyal in the west and hosts in its territory French and US military forces, is the key player of the Sahel region. A potential destabilization of Chad would bring disastrous consequences for the western interests in the region. Niger’s coup and further destabilization of the Sahel region undermines seriously the energy security and migratory policy of Europe and favors the strengthening of terrorist activity (Sahel accounts the 43% of the global terrorism deaths during 2022).

August 30th, 2023

Ioannis Karampelas

President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy