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SOUTH CHINA SEA: RISING TENSIONS AND GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRIES
On April 21st, 2025, the annual military exercise BALIKATAN 2025 has started, involving forces from the Philippines and the United States. Additionally, Australia will participate in the exercise with 260 soldiers, while 19 countries, including France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom will send observers. A total of 14,000 soldiers (5,000 Filipino and 9,000 American troops) will participate in the training activity, conducted in the context of the Mutual Defense Agreement of 1951, which provides for U.S. assistance to the Philippines in the event of an attack. The exercise scenario includes organizing and conducting defense in the Philippine archipelago and repelling an attack on one of the country’s islands. Specifically, the exercise involves launching a counteroffensive to retake an island captured by the enemy, sinking enemy vessels using artillery and missile fires, conducting joint naval missions in the South China Sea, and aerial reconnaissance missions over the Philippine archipelago. Among other things, the U.S. will engage the medium-range missile system (with a range of 500 to 2,000 km) called TYPHON, a unit of which was deployed about a year ago in the Luzon area of the Philippines. Naturally, the conduct of the exercise and the testing of advanced missile systems have provoked a reaction from China, which expressed its opposition to such military actions in the disputed area of the South China Sea, particularly with the involvement of U.S. forces. Indeed, on April 24th, 2025, a Chinese naval force consisting of an aircraft carrier and escort ships (frigates, cruisers, support vessels) sailed into the area.
The South China Sea is a region of heightened tension with a real risk of escalation and armed conflict. The overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the countries in the region (Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Indonesia, China, Vietnam) and China’s “Nine-Dash Line” policy, which claims almost the entire marine area, while excluding other countries from their rights under international maritime law, significantly raises tensions, posing the danger of military conflict, either due to accident or deliberate provocations. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of powerful global forces such as the U.S., which have critical strategic interests in the region. The South China Sea is rich in fisheries (12% of the world’s fish catch comes from here) and mineral resources (it is estimated that about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic meters of natural gas lie beneath its surface). Additionally, it is a critical route for global shipping and the transportation of goods, with an annual value of approximately $3 trillion. In this light, military activities reflect broader geopolitical dynamics, turning the area into a strategic battlefield. The involvement of local, regional, and global actors elevates the region to a field of regional and global rivalries that influence the distribution of power, as all seek to secure their interests.
April 26th, 2025
Ioannis Karampelas
President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy
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May 1st, 2025
National Day of: Republic of the Marshall Islands
Marshall Islands National Day (Constitution Day) is celebrated on May 1st every year in commemoration of the state's new constitution and independence on May 1st, 1979. The Marshall Islands is an island country in the Pacific Ocean and comprises five islands and 29 atolls. The Spanish explorer Alonso de Salazar was the first European who visited the Marshall islands, followed by Spanish and British explorers and merchants. They were controlled by Spanish colonists and grouped with the Caroline Islands which are now known as Palau in the Federated States of Micronesia. The German Empire made several moves to annex the islands, which eventually resulted in a Spanish agreement with Germany about the islands. German administration controlled the islands effectively ruled by the Marshallese high chiefs. During the World War I, the Japanese controlled the Marshall Islands, and at the end of the war, the U.S.A. took control after a battle directed by the U.S. Marines and Army forces. The U.S.A maintained controll of the islands and from 1946 to 1958, it served as the "Pacific Proving Grounds" for the United States and was the site of 67 nuclear tests on various atolls. As time passed, the status of the Marshall Islands evolved in the political field. The people of the islands voted for their independence by referendum and drafted a new constitution. Respecting the new status of the Marshall Islands in the political sphere, the U.S.A. recognized on May 1st, 1979 the constitution of the Marshallese and the establishment of a new Government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands.
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