​The geopolitical equations in the northwestern borders of Iran and the Karabakh region are strongly going against Iran.
The recent war between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia has strongly changed the equations in favor of Baku and Ankara and to the detriment of Tehran, which supports Yerevan and opposes changing the border status in this region.
The Republic of Azerbaijan intends to have access to the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan, which is a part of the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, by establishing a road that passes through south of Armenia, in order to connect the Republic of Azerbaijan directly to Turkey.
On the other hand, Tehran is worried that the creation of a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, which crosses the border of Armenia with Iran, will disrupt the land connection between Iran and the Caucasus region becoming more dependent on Turkey for communication with Europe.
In addition, relations between Azerbaijan and Israel have made Iran more worried. The Islamic Republic fears that the presence of Israel and Europe in this region and their support for the Republic of Azerbaijan will ultimately lead to the change of borders and the loss of strategic borders for Iran.
On the other hand, Iran has no other way to prevent this situation except for holding drills and warning language, which will definitely not be a deterrent.

February 7th, 2023

Sharareh Abdolhoseinzadeh

PhD in political science, researcher