IRAN – ISRAEL ARMED CONFLICT: THE TIT FOR TAT GAME THREATENS STABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST

On April 13th, 2024 Iran launched an unprecedented attack against Israel as retaliation to the latter’s attack on April 1st, 2024 against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria killing 16 people of which seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two senior officers. Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles (approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles) targeting exclusively military targets and aiming to overwhelm and test the Israeli air and missile defense system. The attack was successfully repelled by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), since the integrated air and defense system intercepted almost all of the Iranian projectiles. According to US sources only nine missiles reached their target striking two Israeli air bases. The Iranian attack was supported by additional attacks of Iranian proxies from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. On April 18th, 2024 Israel retaliated the attack by launching an airstrike against an Air Force base in Esfahan, Iran. An Israeli aircraft launched at least three missiles against the air base. The attack targeted a S-300 PMU2 surface to air battery which has the mission to provide air and missile defense to the Natanz nuclear complex situated approximately 170 km north of Esfahan and it is the main Iranian facility for Uranium enrichment. According to Iranian media a second Israeli attack took place in Tabriz, Iran.

The Iranian strike against Israel signaled a historic strategic shift of Tehran since it was the first time it launched a direct attack to the Israeli territory, aiming to establish deterrence. Until then there have never been a direct confrontation between the two states and Iran used proxies to harm its historical enemy. The next day will never be the same since Tehran demonstrated its willingness and its ability to directly attack Israel, exposing the deterrence ability of Tel Aviv and Washington. On the other hand, Tel Aviv intercepted successfully the Iranian attack, but it is highlighted the valuable support of the US, UK, France, and Jordan which joined Israel in the interception of the Iranian projectiles. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates provided critical intelligence to Israel contributing in its defense readiness. Tel Aviv sent its strong and clear message that it maintains the ability to strike in the Iranian heart anytime. Both countries, Iran and Israel, clearly demonstrated their willingness to avoid a further escalation of the armed confrontation for their own reasons and their strikes were carefully planned with the use of the minimum necessary force. The chapters of the retaliation attacks have closed since both sides have sent their messages and the confrontation will return in its normal way through proxies.

April 23rd, 2024

Ioannis Karampelas

President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy