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SOUTH CHINA SEA: RISING TENSIONS AND GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRIES
On April 21st, 2025, the annual military exercise BALIKATAN 2025 has started, involving forces from the Philippines and the United States. Additionally, Australia will participate in the exercise with 260 soldiers, while 19 countries, including France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom will send observers. A total of 14,000 soldiers (5,000 Filipino and 9,000 American troops) will participate in the training activity, conducted in the context of the Mutual Defense Agreement of 1951, which provides for U.S. assistance to the Philippines in the event of an attack. The exercise scenario includes organizing and conducting defense in the Philippine archipelago and repelling an attack on one of the country’s islands. Specifically, the exercise involves launching a counteroffensive to retake an island captured by the enemy, sinking enemy vessels using artillery and missile fires, conducting joint naval missions in the South China Sea, and aerial reconnaissance missions over the Philippine archipelago. Among other things, the U.S. will engage the medium-range missile system (with a range of 500 to 2,000 km) called TYPHON, a unit of which was deployed about a year ago in the Luzon area of the Philippines. Naturally, the conduct of the exercise and the testing of advanced missile systems have provoked a reaction from China, which expressed its opposition to such military actions in the disputed area of the South China Sea, particularly with the involvement of U.S. forces. Indeed, on April 24th, 2025, a Chinese naval force consisting of an aircraft carrier and escort ships (frigates, cruisers, support vessels) sailed into the area.
The South China Sea is a region of heightened tension with a real risk of escalation and armed conflict. The overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the countries in the region (Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Indonesia, China, Vietnam) and China’s “Nine-Dash Line” policy, which claims almost the entire marine area, while excluding other countries from their rights under international maritime law, significantly raises tensions, posing the danger of military conflict, either due to accident or deliberate provocations. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of powerful global forces such as the U.S., which have critical strategic interests in the region. The South China Sea is rich in fisheries (12% of the world’s fish catch comes from here) and mineral resources (it is estimated that about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic meters of natural gas lie beneath its surface). Additionally, it is a critical route for global shipping and the transportation of goods, with an annual value of approximately $3 trillion. In this light, military activities reflect broader geopolitical dynamics, turning the area into a strategic battlefield. The involvement of local, regional, and global actors elevates the region to a field of regional and global rivalries that influence the distribution of power, as all seek to secure their interests.
April 26th, 2025
Ioannis Karampelas
President of HERMES Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy
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May 3rd, 2025
National Day of: Republic of Poland
Poland celebrates its National Day or Constitution Day on May 3rd every year, marking the declaration of the Constitution of May 3rd, 1791. That day, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth's Constitution was adopted. It was the first Constitution in modern Europe and second in the world, following the American one. The Constitution of 3rd May 1791 is considered one of the most important achievements in the history of Poland, despite being in effect for only a year, until the Russo-Polish War of 1792. The Constitution sought to supplant the existing anarchy fostered by some of the country's magnates with a more democratic constitutional monarchy. The adoption of the Constitution provoked the active hostility of the Commonwealth's neighbours, leading to the Second Partition of Poland in 1792, the Kosciuszko Uprising of 1794 and the final, Third Partition of Poland, in 1795. May 3rd was established as a holiday only days after the Constitution was passed by the Grand Sejm (Polish Parliament). It was later suspended for many years due to the country's partitioning, but was reinstituted after Poland regained its freedom in 1918. After World War II, in 1946, the communist authorities banned the holiday's public celebration. The holiday was officially cancelled in 1951. Since 1990 the May 3rd holiday has again been celebrated as an official statutory holiday in Poland.
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